It's time for a new college football season to kick off, and I'm pumped to start writing on here again about my adventures in college sports betting. Obviously, right now we are going to be starting with college football betting, and then progressively moving onto college basketball betting. But we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.
Moving into this new season, I've got a couple of goals for myself that I thought I'd share with all of you readers out there (which right now is zero!) to try to keep myself more on an even keel than in the past. So, here we go.
Goal 1 - make a certain number of bets per day and stick to those bets only.
What often happens is one of two things. Either I make a few bets early and they pay off or I make a few and they don't pay off. Either way I keep kind of string betting throughout the day, and it usually doesn't work good. To be better at this I think I'm going to pick several games throughout the day, and bet them as the day goes on. If I do good or bad, I'm not going to jump on games I haven't identified as good value bets.
Goal 2 - less parlays, more single team bets.
Parlays are sucker bets. If you don't know that, then you should accept that and bet them at your own risk. When I'm betting college football games, I usually like to throw in a couple of parlays. It keeps things interesting, and I like the idea of the big payout. But they are hard to win. And the less of them I bet, the better. Maybe I'll limit myself to two or less three team or less parlays per day. That should keep me under control (and keep the parlays small enough that I actually might hit one from time to time).
That's pretty much it for now. Happy college sports betting, and let's have a great season!
Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
NCAA March Madness College Basketball Betting System
The 2009 NCAA men's basketball tournament, otherwise known as March Madness, is upon us in only two short days. I'm going to Las Vegas, where every serious college basketball sports bettor should be during the first two rounds of NCAA tournament to try to win a little cash. This will be my fifth or sixth year in Las Vegas for March Madness, and I'm thinking about employing a system this year to try to win some money.
Now, at this point, I don't have any idea exactly what that system will be, but I think there are some successful one's out there. A guy I used to work with a few years ago always went to Las Vegas for March Madness and always told me he won money. When I asked him his secret, he said his buddy had a system, that he just followed his buddy, and he always won money. I never could get what the system is, but I think it was heavy on underdogs and heavy on certain seeds covering consistently. That underlying philosophy I think is important for winning during March Madness - stay away from falling in love with specific teams and try to find trends that pay off.
What I'm trying to say is, for the teams, they don't how much they win by. They only want to "survive and advance" during March Madness. That philosophy is great for the team, but bad for college basketball sports bettors betting on the NCAA tournament. This means teams will often pull guys, particularly in the first rounds of play, to rest them for the next game or future games, when up big. That tends to result in terrible teams making remarkable comebacks to cover the spread right at the last second.
The other thing is, the NCAA men's basketball tournament is pressure packed - for those teams with a high seed. They have sights on winning the NCAA tournament and realize fairly quickly that one bad game can end their dreams. Underdogs, both by seed and those designated so by the sports books (it is ridiculous to think that college basketball players don't know the spreads of their games - when I played basketball in high school we knew who was picked to win the game) have nothing to lose and everything to gain. If they lose, it will hurt, but it won't be the same as if a favorite loses. This often results in lower seeded teams playing the higher seeds relatively close - usually the good teams are good enough talent wise to win, but they are playing so tight they don't run away with a game like they normally might. This make betting on college basketball that much harder when you take favorites.
Where am I going with this, you might be asking? I'm not sure. It's a tall task because some teams cover, certainly, and picking which ones is the name of the game.
- I must take an aside here, relying on the greatness of the internet I just googled "ncaa tournament betting trends" and found some great information I think I'll share now that will probably shape my NCAA March Madness betting strategy -
Okay, here are some of the NCAA tournament betting trends I've found that will form the basis of my NCAA tournament betting system. And although I realize in sports betting trends don't really mean a lot, since every game is independent of another, there is something there, even if it is a self-fulfilling prophesy type of a thing. For example, a 12 seed almost always beats a 5 seed (Western Kentucky and Arizona are the two I'm feeling right now), and it probably has nothing to do with trends and more to do with the fact that 12 seeds come into the tournament not just expecting to cover but to win because everyone thinks it is possible, and for one team, is even inevitable. It is hard to beat those odds as a basketball team.
On to the trends - first against the spread (ATS):
- Since 1998 69% of the higher seeded teams have won their games.
- But in that same time, the favorite has only covered against the spread 47.3% of the time.
- Double digit favorites are 65-67-2 in the last two years.
- Favorites of 3 points or less are only 49-57 straight up and 42-64-1 ATS (39.6%)!
- First weekend trends
- In the last 7 years, the favorite has covered 48.8% of the time.
- Over the last 2 years, the lower seeds have covered 56% of the time.
- #1 vs. #16: 28-0 straight up, 16-12 ATS, 14 of 24 totalled games went UNDER.
- #2 vs. #15: 27-1 SU, 12-16 ATS, 16 of 24 games went UNDER.
- #3 vs. #14: 26-2 SU, 16-12 ATS, 9 of 15 games went OVER.
- #4 vs. #13: 22-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS, 14 of 24 games OVER.
- #5 vs. #12: 17-11 SU, 11-16 ATS, 15 of 24 games OVER.
- #6 vs. #11: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14 of 24 UNDER.
- #7 vs. #10: 15-13 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14-8-2 in favor of UNDER.
- #8 vs. #9: 15-13 SU, 14-14 ATS, 13 of 24 OVER.
- What does this tell us, if anything? First, I think its fairly clear that the 8-9 match up is the one to probably stay away from against the spread (if trends hold true). And it looks like taking the 10 to win outright would probably pay out over time (assuming greater odds for an underdog winning). Otherwise, it looks like you want to play underdogs for 2 and 5 seeds, and favorites for 1 and 3 seeds, and truly gamble with the rest.
- General second round trends:
- On Sunday, the lower seed has a straight up record of 27-29 and are 32-24 ATS (57%).
- 52 of 95 (55% of games in the second round have gone over.
- Line Placement:
- Favorites of more than 6 are 26-29 ATS (but 10-6 last two years)
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-11 ATS, but over the last two years are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
- Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-20 ATS!
- Seeding Patterns:
- #1, #2, #3 seeds are combined 36-44 (45%) ATS in second round.
- #2 vs. #10 is especially harmful: 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS.
- #2 vs. #7 though, is not as bad: 9-4 SU and ATS.
- #10 and #8 seeds have best ATS this round, with #10 going 11-4 ATS and #8 11-5 ATS.
I guess maybe we should see if some of these trends hold true. I particularly like some of the second rounds stats, and think I may roll my college sports betting according to this system:
1. #10 to win outright.
2. #1 to cover.
3. #12 to cover.
4. Anyone favorite of less than three points - bet on underdog to cover.
I'll get to my second round system after I see how the first rounds went. Good luck!!
Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
Now, at this point, I don't have any idea exactly what that system will be, but I think there are some successful one's out there. A guy I used to work with a few years ago always went to Las Vegas for March Madness and always told me he won money. When I asked him his secret, he said his buddy had a system, that he just followed his buddy, and he always won money. I never could get what the system is, but I think it was heavy on underdogs and heavy on certain seeds covering consistently. That underlying philosophy I think is important for winning during March Madness - stay away from falling in love with specific teams and try to find trends that pay off.
What I'm trying to say is, for the teams, they don't how much they win by. They only want to "survive and advance" during March Madness. That philosophy is great for the team, but bad for college basketball sports bettors betting on the NCAA tournament. This means teams will often pull guys, particularly in the first rounds of play, to rest them for the next game or future games, when up big. That tends to result in terrible teams making remarkable comebacks to cover the spread right at the last second.
The other thing is, the NCAA men's basketball tournament is pressure packed - for those teams with a high seed. They have sights on winning the NCAA tournament and realize fairly quickly that one bad game can end their dreams. Underdogs, both by seed and those designated so by the sports books (it is ridiculous to think that college basketball players don't know the spreads of their games - when I played basketball in high school we knew who was picked to win the game) have nothing to lose and everything to gain. If they lose, it will hurt, but it won't be the same as if a favorite loses. This often results in lower seeded teams playing the higher seeds relatively close - usually the good teams are good enough talent wise to win, but they are playing so tight they don't run away with a game like they normally might. This make betting on college basketball that much harder when you take favorites.
Where am I going with this, you might be asking? I'm not sure. It's a tall task because some teams cover, certainly, and picking which ones is the name of the game.
- I must take an aside here, relying on the greatness of the internet I just googled "ncaa tournament betting trends" and found some great information I think I'll share now that will probably shape my NCAA March Madness betting strategy -
Okay, here are some of the NCAA tournament betting trends I've found that will form the basis of my NCAA tournament betting system. And although I realize in sports betting trends don't really mean a lot, since every game is independent of another, there is something there, even if it is a self-fulfilling prophesy type of a thing. For example, a 12 seed almost always beats a 5 seed (Western Kentucky and Arizona are the two I'm feeling right now), and it probably has nothing to do with trends and more to do with the fact that 12 seeds come into the tournament not just expecting to cover but to win because everyone thinks it is possible, and for one team, is even inevitable. It is hard to beat those odds as a basketball team.
On to the trends - first against the spread (ATS):
- Since 1998 69% of the higher seeded teams have won their games.
- But in that same time, the favorite has only covered against the spread 47.3% of the time.
- Double digit favorites are 65-67-2 in the last two years.
- Favorites of 3 points or less are only 49-57 straight up and 42-64-1 ATS (39.6%)!
- First weekend trends
- In the last 7 years, the favorite has covered 48.8% of the time.
- Over the last 2 years, the lower seeds have covered 56% of the time.
- #1 vs. #16: 28-0 straight up, 16-12 ATS, 14 of 24 totalled games went UNDER.
- #2 vs. #15: 27-1 SU, 12-16 ATS, 16 of 24 games went UNDER.
- #3 vs. #14: 26-2 SU, 16-12 ATS, 9 of 15 games went OVER.
- #4 vs. #13: 22-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS, 14 of 24 games OVER.
- #5 vs. #12: 17-11 SU, 11-16 ATS, 15 of 24 games OVER.
- #6 vs. #11: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14 of 24 UNDER.
- #7 vs. #10: 15-13 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14-8-2 in favor of UNDER.
- #8 vs. #9: 15-13 SU, 14-14 ATS, 13 of 24 OVER.
- What does this tell us, if anything? First, I think its fairly clear that the 8-9 match up is the one to probably stay away from against the spread (if trends hold true). And it looks like taking the 10 to win outright would probably pay out over time (assuming greater odds for an underdog winning). Otherwise, it looks like you want to play underdogs for 2 and 5 seeds, and favorites for 1 and 3 seeds, and truly gamble with the rest.
- General second round trends:
- On Sunday, the lower seed has a straight up record of 27-29 and are 32-24 ATS (57%).
- 52 of 95 (55% of games in the second round have gone over.
- Line Placement:
- Favorites of more than 6 are 26-29 ATS (but 10-6 last two years)
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-11 ATS, but over the last two years are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
- Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-20 ATS!
- Seeding Patterns:
- #1, #2, #3 seeds are combined 36-44 (45%) ATS in second round.
- #2 vs. #10 is especially harmful: 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS.
- #2 vs. #7 though, is not as bad: 9-4 SU and ATS.
- #10 and #8 seeds have best ATS this round, with #10 going 11-4 ATS and #8 11-5 ATS.
I guess maybe we should see if some of these trends hold true. I particularly like some of the second rounds stats, and think I may roll my college sports betting according to this system:
1. #10 to win outright.
2. #1 to cover.
3. #12 to cover.
4. Anyone favorite of less than three points - bet on underdog to cover.
I'll get to my second round system after I see how the first rounds went. Good luck!!
Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
Friday, March 13, 2009
College Basketball Sports Betting | Picks of the Day
Yesterday my college basketball sports bets of the day were okay at best. I was 3-5 on the day, but two of the three I was correct on were my two unit picks, so I almost broke even for the day. There were just a lot more upsets (outright even) than I saw coming. Just one of those days.
My record for the season is:
Two Unit Picks - 2-0
One Unit Picks - 16-16-2
Parlays - 1-4
Hopefully we can turn it around a little bit and make some money betting on college basketball. Here are my picks:
Michigan (+120) vs. Illinois - Michigan to win for one unit. I was going to pick this before Illinois lost their starting point guard. Now I'm even more sure.
Ga Tech vs. Florida St (-5) - Florida St for one unit. Ga Tech had their one flash in the pan yesterday. Fl. St. is too good to take these guys lightly now.
Miss St. vs. S. Carolina (-2.5) - S. Carolina for one unit. Miss St had to play yesterday and Carolina is the better team.
Alabama vs. Tennessee (-7) - Tennessee for one unit. Tenn is too athletic for Alabama. And Alabama is not that good. Not a good combination for Alabama.
Florida vs. Auburn (+145) - Auburn for one unit. They are playing really hot right now and need this game to secure an NCAA birth. Florida will be playing hard, but I think Auburn has the horses to pull this upset off.
Baylor vs. Texas (o/u 140) - Over for one unit. Baylor looked to be getting hot in their win yesterday over Kansas. These two teams will run it up and down the floor, and both will put the basketball in the hoop.
Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin (-3) - Wisconsin for one unit. Don't have a great feel for this game. Wisconsin is better and they are more experienced. That is usually a pretty good formula for success.
I also parlayed Tenn, Florida St, and S Carolina for one unit. Have a great time watching NCAA basketball games and getting ready for March Madness. If you are like me, this is your favorite time of the year, as the college basketball is great and the sports betting is even better.
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Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
My record for the season is:
Two Unit Picks - 2-0
One Unit Picks - 16-16-2
Parlays - 1-4
Hopefully we can turn it around a little bit and make some money betting on college basketball. Here are my picks:
Michigan (+120) vs. Illinois - Michigan to win for one unit. I was going to pick this before Illinois lost their starting point guard. Now I'm even more sure.
Ga Tech vs. Florida St (-5) - Florida St for one unit. Ga Tech had their one flash in the pan yesterday. Fl. St. is too good to take these guys lightly now.
Miss St. vs. S. Carolina (-2.5) - S. Carolina for one unit. Miss St had to play yesterday and Carolina is the better team.
Alabama vs. Tennessee (-7) - Tennessee for one unit. Tenn is too athletic for Alabama. And Alabama is not that good. Not a good combination for Alabama.
Florida vs. Auburn (+145) - Auburn for one unit. They are playing really hot right now and need this game to secure an NCAA birth. Florida will be playing hard, but I think Auburn has the horses to pull this upset off.
Baylor vs. Texas (o/u 140) - Over for one unit. Baylor looked to be getting hot in their win yesterday over Kansas. These two teams will run it up and down the floor, and both will put the basketball in the hoop.
Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin (-3) - Wisconsin for one unit. Don't have a great feel for this game. Wisconsin is better and they are more experienced. That is usually a pretty good formula for success.
I also parlayed Tenn, Florida St, and S Carolina for one unit. Have a great time watching NCAA basketball games and getting ready for March Madness. If you are like me, this is your favorite time of the year, as the college basketball is great and the sports betting is even better.
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Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
College Basketball Sports Betting | Picks of the Day
Here we are for another day of college basketball sports betting. Yesterday was a pretty good day, going 4-2 overall and 0-1 for my parlay. This makes my college basketball sports betting record 15-1-2 and my parlay record 1-3. Not bad so far. There are some pretty great match ups out there with the conference tournaments in full swing. Great college basketball lines out there to take advantage of.
In light of the number of games, I've made quite a number of college basketball sports wagers today. Hopefully they pan out. Here we go:
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson (-9.5) - Clemson for one unit. Clemson is the better team here. They are playing in Atlanta, but if Clemson doesn't come out asleep, they should be okay.
Marquette vs. Villanova (-3) - Marquette for one unit. With the injury to James, they just don't have the depth to play back to back games, particularly with the degree of difficulty increase in level of competition.
Air Force vs. BYU (-16.5) - BYU for one unit. Air Force didn't win a conference game until last night. BYU is a perennial conference basketball powerhouse. They should roll Air Force.
Indiana vs. Penn St. (-9) - Penn St. for one unit. Indiana is terrible and Penn St. needs to win this game to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive. If Penn St. wants to experience March Madness, they had better win this game. And Indiana is terrible.
Fresno St. vs. Utah St. (-10) - Utah St. for two units. This is my first two unit bet. Fresno St. is terrible, has already played one game, and Utah St. was undefeated for the better part of the year. They should roll Fresno St.
Ok. St. vs. Oklahoma (-5) - Oklahoma for one unit. OU is playing for a one seed in the NCAA tournament, and needs a good showing in every game to get that consideration. These two teams just played, but Oklahoma St. has already played a game, making it susceptible to fatigue.
TCU vs. Utah (-10) - Utah for one unit. Utah is just the better team.
Texas Tech vs. Missouri (-12) - Missouri for two units. Texas Tech is a terrible team. They had to fight back from a 20+ point deficit last night to win the game. Missouri's goal is to get wear you out. Texas Tech, by the end of the game, will have no legs.
And, last but not least, a parlay. Mizzou, Utah St. and Utah. Good luck, and let's win some money betting on college basketball!
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Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
In light of the number of games, I've made quite a number of college basketball sports wagers today. Hopefully they pan out. Here we go:
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson (-9.5) - Clemson for one unit. Clemson is the better team here. They are playing in Atlanta, but if Clemson doesn't come out asleep, they should be okay.
Marquette vs. Villanova (-3) - Marquette for one unit. With the injury to James, they just don't have the depth to play back to back games, particularly with the degree of difficulty increase in level of competition.
Air Force vs. BYU (-16.5) - BYU for one unit. Air Force didn't win a conference game until last night. BYU is a perennial conference basketball powerhouse. They should roll Air Force.
Indiana vs. Penn St. (-9) - Penn St. for one unit. Indiana is terrible and Penn St. needs to win this game to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive. If Penn St. wants to experience March Madness, they had better win this game. And Indiana is terrible.
Fresno St. vs. Utah St. (-10) - Utah St. for two units. This is my first two unit bet. Fresno St. is terrible, has already played one game, and Utah St. was undefeated for the better part of the year. They should roll Fresno St.
Ok. St. vs. Oklahoma (-5) - Oklahoma for one unit. OU is playing for a one seed in the NCAA tournament, and needs a good showing in every game to get that consideration. These two teams just played, but Oklahoma St. has already played a game, making it susceptible to fatigue.
TCU vs. Utah (-10) - Utah for one unit. Utah is just the better team.
Texas Tech vs. Missouri (-12) - Missouri for two units. Texas Tech is a terrible team. They had to fight back from a 20+ point deficit last night to win the game. Missouri's goal is to get wear you out. Texas Tech, by the end of the game, will have no legs.
And, last but not least, a parlay. Mizzou, Utah St. and Utah. Good luck, and let's win some money betting on college basketball!
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Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
College Basketball Lines | Picks of the Day
If you are following along, yesterday I was 1-1 picking college basketball betting lines. That is kind of like kissing your sister. But I'm still ahead on the year, so I've got that going for me. No sports betting advice today. Just picks. My record, after yesterday, is 11-10-2 and 1-2 on parlays.
Here are my college basketball sports bets of the day:
St. Johns vs. Marquette (-7.5) - my pick is St. Johns for 1 unit. This is the Big East Tournament, being played in St. John's backyard. Hopefully they can keep this one close.
Notre Dame vs. West Virginia (-5.5) - my pick is West Virginia for one unit. They are just the better team. Period.
Charlotte vs. St. Joe's (-2) - My pick is St. Joe's for one unit. Same reasoning as St. Johns (this is not the Big East, but they are playing in New Jersey).
Iowa St. vs. Oklahoma St. (-10.5) - my pick is Ok. St. for one unit. Ok. State is the better team and they are playing in Oklahoma City.
Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M (-6.5) - my pick is A&M for one unit. A&M is just better. This line is pretty favorable for A&M.
Seton Hall vs. Syracuse (-6.5) - my pick is Syracuse for one unit. See St. Johns for reasons.
I also parlayed St. Johns, Oklahoma St., and Syracuse for one unit.
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Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
Here are my college basketball sports bets of the day:
St. Johns vs. Marquette (-7.5) - my pick is St. Johns for 1 unit. This is the Big East Tournament, being played in St. John's backyard. Hopefully they can keep this one close.
Notre Dame vs. West Virginia (-5.5) - my pick is West Virginia for one unit. They are just the better team. Period.
Charlotte vs. St. Joe's (-2) - My pick is St. Joe's for one unit. Same reasoning as St. Johns (this is not the Big East, but they are playing in New Jersey).
Iowa St. vs. Oklahoma St. (-10.5) - my pick is Ok. St. for one unit. Ok. State is the better team and they are playing in Oklahoma City.
Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M (-6.5) - my pick is A&M for one unit. A&M is just better. This line is pretty favorable for A&M.
Seton Hall vs. Syracuse (-6.5) - my pick is Syracuse for one unit. See St. Johns for reasons.
I also parlayed St. Johns, Oklahoma St., and Syracuse for one unit.
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Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.
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