NCAA March Madness College Basketball Betting System

The 2009 NCAA men's basketball tournament, otherwise known as March Madness, is upon us in only two short days. I'm going to Las Vegas, where every serious college basketball sports bettor should be during the first two rounds of NCAA tournament to try to win a little cash. This will be my fifth or sixth year in Las Vegas for March Madness, and I'm thinking about employing a system this year to try to win some money.

Now, at this point, I don't have any idea exactly what that system will be, but I think there are some successful one's out there. A guy I used to work with a few years ago always went to Las Vegas for March Madness and always told me he won money. When I asked him his secret, he said his buddy had a system, that he just followed his buddy, and he always won money. I never could get what the system is, but I think it was heavy on underdogs and heavy on certain seeds covering consistently. That underlying philosophy I think is important for winning during March Madness - stay away from falling in love with specific teams and try to find trends that pay off.

What I'm trying to say is, for the teams, they don't how much they win by. They only want to "survive and advance" during March Madness. That philosophy is great for the team, but bad for college basketball sports bettors betting on the NCAA tournament. This means teams will often pull guys, particularly in the first rounds of play, to rest them for the next game or future games, when up big. That tends to result in terrible teams making remarkable comebacks to cover the spread right at the last second.

The other thing is, the NCAA men's basketball tournament is pressure packed - for those teams with a high seed. They have sights on winning the NCAA tournament and realize fairly quickly that one bad game can end their dreams. Underdogs, both by seed and those designated so by the sports books (it is ridiculous to think that college basketball players don't know the spreads of their games - when I played basketball in high school we knew who was picked to win the game) have nothing to lose and everything to gain. If they lose, it will hurt, but it won't be the same as if a favorite loses. This often results in lower seeded teams playing the higher seeds relatively close - usually the good teams are good enough talent wise to win, but they are playing so tight they don't run away with a game like they normally might. This make betting on college basketball that much harder when you take favorites.

Where am I going with this, you might be asking? I'm not sure. It's a tall task because some teams cover, certainly, and picking which ones is the name of the game.

- I must take an aside here, relying on the greatness of the internet I just googled "ncaa tournament betting trends" and found some great information I think I'll share now that will probably shape my NCAA March Madness betting strategy -

Okay, here are some of the NCAA tournament betting trends I've found that will form the basis of my NCAA tournament betting system. And although I realize in sports betting trends don't really mean a lot, since every game is independent of another, there is something there, even if it is a self-fulfilling prophesy type of a thing. For example, a 12 seed almost always beats a 5 seed (Western Kentucky and Arizona are the two I'm feeling right now), and it probably has nothing to do with trends and more to do with the fact that 12 seeds come into the tournament not just expecting to cover but to win because everyone thinks it is possible, and for one team, is even inevitable. It is hard to beat those odds as a basketball team.

On to the trends - first against the spread (ATS):
- Since 1998 69% of the higher seeded teams have won their games.
- But in that same time, the favorite has only covered against the spread 47.3% of the time.
- Double digit favorites are 65-67-2 in the last two years.
- Favorites of 3 points or less are only 49-57 straight up and 42-64-1 ATS (39.6%)!
- First weekend trends
- In the last 7 years, the favorite has covered 48.8% of the time.
- Over the last 2 years, the lower seeds have covered 56% of the time.
- #1 vs. #16: 28-0 straight up, 16-12 ATS, 14 of 24 totalled games went UNDER.
- #2 vs. #15: 27-1 SU, 12-16 ATS, 16 of 24 games went UNDER.
- #3 vs. #14: 26-2 SU, 16-12 ATS, 9 of 15 games went OVER.
- #4 vs. #13: 22-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS, 14 of 24 games OVER.
- #5 vs. #12: 17-11 SU, 11-16 ATS, 15 of 24 games OVER.
- #6 vs. #11: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14 of 24 UNDER.
- #7 vs. #10: 15-13 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14-8-2 in favor of UNDER.
- #8 vs. #9: 15-13 SU, 14-14 ATS, 13 of 24 OVER.
- What does this tell us, if anything? First, I think its fairly clear that the 8-9 match up is the one to probably stay away from against the spread (if trends hold true). And it looks like taking the 10 to win outright would probably pay out over time (assuming greater odds for an underdog winning). Otherwise, it looks like you want to play underdogs for 2 and 5 seeds, and favorites for 1 and 3 seeds, and truly gamble with the rest.

- General second round trends:
- On Sunday, the lower seed has a straight up record of 27-29 and are 32-24 ATS (57%).
- 52 of 95 (55% of games in the second round have gone over.
- Line Placement:
- Favorites of more than 6 are 26-29 ATS (but 10-6 last two years)
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-11 ATS, but over the last two years are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
- Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-20 ATS!
- Seeding Patterns:
- #1, #2, #3 seeds are combined 36-44 (45%) ATS in second round.
- #2 vs. #10 is especially harmful: 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS.
- #2 vs. #7 though, is not as bad: 9-4 SU and ATS.
- #10 and #8 seeds have best ATS this round, with #10 going 11-4 ATS and #8 11-5 ATS.

I guess maybe we should see if some of these trends hold true. I particularly like some of the second rounds stats, and think I may roll my college sports betting according to this system:
1. #10 to win outright.
2. #1 to cover.
3. #12 to cover.
4. Anyone favorite of less than three points - bet on underdog to cover.

I'll get to my second round system after I see how the first rounds went. Good luck!!

Have any questions are comments about college sports betting? Please leave a comment and we can discuss.